"The risk of a recession is rising, and the main threat to the economy is the Trump administration's trade war, according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics.
'The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity,' said NABE survey chairman Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics....The results of the survey, conducted the week of Sept. 9-16, come as many analysts see warning signs in the latest U.S. economic indicators, including a plunge in manufacturing activity to more than a 10-year low in September and a sharp slowdown in service-industry growth to levels last seen in 2016....The panel also expects industrial production to slow sharply from 4% in 2018 to just 0.9% in 2019. That represents a big downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.4% in the June survey. Rising pessimism about corporate profits and a wider economic slowdown have rattled the stock market. Last week, Wall Street's main indexes suffered big one-day drops after employment and manufacturing data suggested that the U.S.-China trade war is taking an increasing toll on the U.S. economy."